A report warns that the decline in displaced people hides more obstacles to seeking asylum

“We are at a moment of great uncertainty. We not only have the European Pact on Migration and Asylum (PEMA), but also the approval of the Return Regulation at European level. And here we do think that it is a very important step backwards and a setback in the guarantees and rights of people,” warns Anna Figueras, territorial coordinator of the Comissió Espanyola d'Ajuda al Refugiat (CEAR) Catalunya.

This concern, also expressed by many other social and human rights organisations, hangs over much of the 2026 annual report by the CEAR, which analyses the situation of refugees in the world, in the European Union (EU) and in the Spanish State. The document makes clear the decline in the number of forcibly displaced people in the world and in asylum applications, but warns that it cannot be considered good news.

If we take a look at the data, in 2025 the global figure for forced displacement fell for the first time in a decade, to 117.5 million people, 5% less than the previous year. However, according to CEAR, this decline does not respond to an improvement in the international situation or to a decrease in protection needs, but to the increase in what the organisation defines as “hostile policies”. We are talking about the hardening of migration policies, the externalisation of borders and forced returns, which force many people to remain in countries where their rights and their lives continue to be in danger.

A decline that hides more obstacles to seeking asylum

Despite this unprecedented decline in the number of forcibly displaced people, CEAR believes that it cannot be read positively. Quite the opposite. It is the first fall in a decade, but the organisation stresses that it coexists with a global reality that continues to push millions of people to flee.

The report places the main crises of forced displacement in Afghanistan, Syria, Venezuela, Ukraine, Sudan, the Sahel region, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Somalia and Palestine. These are territories marked by entrenched conflicts, chronic humanitarian crises or contexts of violence and repression that continue to expel the population, very often towards neighbouring countries with fewer resources to guarantee dignified reception.

For CEAR, this drop has more to do with the hardening of borders than with any real improvement in the situation. This is also pointed out by Figueras, who attributes the fall in applications in the Spanish State mainly to two reasons. “One is already the beginning of the externalisation of borders, linked to the entry into force of the European Pact and to the bilateral agreements that Spain has signed with other countries. And another important part is the approval of the modification of the Immigration Regulations, which penalises the fact that the period of stay as an applicant for international protection is not counted in order to access regularisation”.

In this regard, in the Spanish State, applications for international protection went from 167,000 registered in 2024 to 144,000 in 2025. The decline reinforces the organisation’s reading, which focuses on the increasingly difficult access to the right of asylum rather than on a lower need for protection. Factors such as the fact that the waiting time for resolutions no longer counts towards access to regularisation pathways, among others, have had a dissuasive effect and have pushed many people to withdraw their application.

A new European framework that cuts back guarantees

The entry into force of the European Pact on Migration and Asylum on 12 June has opened a new scenario that, according to the commission, may make access to international protection even more difficult. The organisation points to reforms such as those of the concepts of “safe country of origin” and “safe third country”, because they may accelerate denials and returns without a sufficiently careful and individualised analysis of each case.

The risk is that a person may be returned to a country considered safe even though they may suffer persecution or violations of rights there. There is also concern that the mere fact of having transited through a territory may serve to justify returning them there, even if the person has no significant link with that country. This approach, they stress, threatens the principle of non-refoulement, one of the basic guarantees of the right of asylum.

Added to this concern is the future Return Regulation, which points towards a hardening of expulsions and opens the door to measures such as prolonged detention or the creation of return centres outside the EU. In practice, the report denounces, this deepens a logic that shifts responsibilities towards third countries and distances refugees from the guarantees they should find on European territory.

Figueras places one of the great uncertainties of the coming months at this point, which lies in how the Spanish State will apply this new European regulatory framework. “We are concerned about how Spain will modify the regulations and in which direction they will go. We hope it will not be for the worse, that it will not imply a hardening of conditions beyond what we are already seeing now,” she says. The territorial coordinator of the CCAR argues that it is necessary to maintain routes of access to protection, such as article 38 of the Asylum Law, and to strengthen resettlement and family extension commitments: “Legal and safe pathways must be created. These alternatives cannot disappear”.

The report also warns of the difficulties that are already being detected in the new border screening procedures, the first filter at the border to identify people and refer them to the asylum or return procedure. According to the expert, its application is showing problems in identifying situations of vulnerability and a lack of specificity among the different state actors that must apply the system. For organisations defending the right of asylum, the challenge is to prevent the speed of the new procedures from taking precedence over guarantees.

Spain, at the bottom in asylum recognition

In the Spanish State, this trend translates into a fall in applications for international protection, which went from 167,000 registered in 2024 to 144,000 in 2025, a fall of around 14%. Beyond this, the most worrying figure for CEAR is the recognition rate, that is, the proportion of asylum applications that end with a favourable resolution, which fell again to 11.2%, a percentage far below the European average.

Figueras makes clear that “Spain continues to fall and is at the bottom among all European countries”, while also highlighting the “very low recognition rate within what would be Europe, both for the figure of asylum and for subsidiary protection”. However, the report introduces the nuance that in 2025, 63% more pending applications were resolved. In other words, the administration responded to more files, but that did not mean that it granted more protection.

As for Catalonia, the report records that the data remain fairly stable. In 2025, more than 17,200 applications for international protection were registered, 1.6% less than the previous year, and it continues to be the third territory in the State with the most applications, only behind Madrid and Andalusia. Barcelona concentrates the vast majority of applications, with more than 13,300.

Fewer arrivals and more dangerous routes

The fall in arrivals by sea cannot be separated from policies of border externalisation either. According to the data, in 2025 arrivals on the Canary Islands coasts decreased very significantly, 62% less than the previous year. This was largely due to the strengthening of migration control with third countries. However, this has not eliminated displacement, but has diverted people in transit towards longer and more dangerous routes.

A clear example is that of the Balearic Islands, where arrivals have grown by 24.5% and a new route has been consolidated with people coming mainly from Somalia. Figueras explains that this change in itineraries has direct consequences for the people who arrive: “An increase can be seen in people arriving with some important vulnerability factor, especially issues of illness or linked to the dangerousness and the long journey: amputations of limbs, diabetes, cancer...”.

Added to these physical factors is the emotional impact of journeys that, in many cases, last for years and are marked by violence. “Many of these people have been victims of torture, rape and all kinds of situations that have a physical and psychological impact on the person,” adds the ex. Fewer arrivals on one route, therefore, do not mean less movement, but more risk for those who continue to flee.

Basic rights that hinder inclusion

CEAR’s report also warns that the obstacles do not end when people arrive in the Spanish State or obtain some type of protection. Once inside, access to housing, registration on the municipal register and basic benefits continue to be recurring obstacles in inclusion processes, to the point that they can condition access to other rights, such as health, education or social aid.

Figueras presents this as a sustained and growing difficulty: “Year after year, we see difficulty in access to housing, in access to the municipal register and in access to basic benefits. The difficulties in the process of inclusion of people persist and are increasing due to multiple factors. In most cases, the main one is racism and xenophobia”.

In this regard, the territorial coordinator of the CEAR Catalunya denounces the refusal of many municipalities to register migrants on the municipal register, even though it is both a right and an obligation. Without registration, she recalls, many people are left outside the circuit that allows access to basic services and rights.

Added to this administrative blockage is the rise in hate speech and hate crimes. According to the report, hate crimes and incidents linked above all to racism and xenophobia grew by 23.6% in 2025, the highest figure since records began. In response, the commission calls for a State pact against this escalation, which has a strong impact on the daily lives of migrants and refugees, while making their inclusion process even more difficult.

For all these reasons, CEAR insists that the decline in the figures cannot be seen as good news without looking beyond them. Fewer registered displaced people, fewer arrivals or fewer asylum applications do not necessarily mean less persecution or less need for protection. The reality is that the underlying problem persists: legal and safe pathways continue to be insufficient and the right of asylum is increasingly difficult to exercise for many of the people who need it most.